Best Political Slugfest
Tom Allen and Susan Collins take off the gloves.
Jeff Clark
One of the problems with politics in Maine is that they are, by and large, boring. Incumbents are rarely unseated, and the state hasn’t seen a really tough, hard-fought, outcome-
in-question political race above the local level since 1996. Not coincidentally, that was the year Susan Collins defeated former governor and congressman Joseph Brennan to win her first term as a U.S. senator.
Now Collins, an Aroostook County Republican, is on one side of another horse race, this one pitting her against Maine’s senior congressman, Portland Democrat Tom Allen — who not coincidentally won his First District seat in 1996 by defeating a one-term incumbent, James Longley. Both of them have rolled over every opponent since then — Allen won his last election by a nearly two to one margin — and both of them have well-honed fundraising machines that will undoubtedly turn this year’s Senate race into the single most expensive political campaign in the state’s history.
And both of them hate the idea that the Maine media will undoubtedly spend an inordinate amount of time focusing on the campaign rather than the issues. That may be the price, though, for running in the best race in Maine in 2008.
It had better be good. Besides being the biggest, most expensive race in the state, it may also be the longest. Allen, 62, announced his candidacy back in May, ending months of speculation about his plans and setting off a feeding frenzy among Democrats eager to win the nomination in a true-blue House district. By the time voters go to the polls in November, they will have been subjected to eighteen months of push polls, campaign events, television ads, and YouTube videos — and that’s not even counting the mania certain to surround the presidential campaign.
Collins, 55, has not announced her candidacy, but dismisses that fact as a formality rather than a source of conjecture. “I think this campaign started way too early,” she says, adding that she will take a more traditional approach of announcing around Memorial Day. That hasn’t stopped her from raising millions of dollars in contributions or hiring a Web site/Internet manager to oversee her campaign Web site and coordinate YouTube videos to counter Allen’s efforts.
Both the candidates and outside observers estimate that each side will spend $6 million to $8 million. Mark Brewer, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Maine in Orono, says those numbers are a minimum. “That’s the floor amount,” he says, “especially if it turns into a tight race. If it gets tight, party and special interest money will be flooding in here.”
The race has attracted national attention already because, outside Maine, Collins is seen as vulnerable due to her past support for the Bush administration and the war in Iraq. Allen has drawn more than $250,000 through the liberal Web site MoveOn.org, while more than a thousand individuals have made donations to him through ActBlue.com, a Web site that links donors to Democratic candidates nationwide.
Collins hasn’t tapped into comparable Web sites at the other end of the political spectrum because she generally isn’t considered conservative enough to warrant their support. Many of her donations have come from Senate colleagues and Maine supporters, while both have drawn money from political action committees and industry groups.
Collins is going into the race with a substantial lead in the voter polls. An independent survey in Maine commissioned by Daily Kos, a popular liberal Web site, showed Collins beating Allen by 56 to 33 percent, a spread that Collins spokeswoman Jen Burita says closely tracks the senator’s own polling data. But Collins admits the race “is clearly going to close up” as November approaches.
Starting from that far behind begs the question: Why would a popular, respected, six-term congressman give up a guaranteed reelection to run an underdog race against a popular, respected, two-term senator — particularly when there is the possibility of an open Senate seat race in another two years if Olympia Snowe retires, as many people expect? Allen will be giving up twelve years of seniority in the House at a time when the Democrats are finally in power in hopes of starting at the bottom of the totem pole again in the Senate.
Allen deflects the question, saying, “It’s not about me.” Instead, he says, it’s about winning a “working majority” in the Senate capable of addressing major issues such as Iraq, health-care reform, energy, and climate change. Outside observers are more ready to speculate.
“I think [Allen] feels it’s time to make the move,” observes Kenneth Palmer, a retired UMaine political science professor with decades of experience in observing Maine politics. “He’ll be sixty-three next year. If he’s going to make a career in the Senate, he has to start now. And given what the Democrats have not accomplished in the House in the past year, I’m not sure [the Democratic majority] is a reason for him to stay there.”
Brewer says Allen’s decision surprised him. “I thought he’d decide to stay when the Dems got the majority,” he says. “There’s probably an element of personal ambition, plus I’m sure he and other party leaders think Susan Collins is vulnerable because of George Bush and Iraq.”
“I think Tom’s had enough,” asserts veteran Maine political commentator (and DownEast.com blogger) Al Diamon. “It’s no fun being in the House, he’s not senior enough for any of the major leadership positions, there’s no policy wonk stuff, and he’s a policy wonk through and through.”
“The Democrats undoubtedly think this is a golden opportunity,” Brewer points out. “The First District seat is solidly Democratic, so there’s no danger of losing it without [Allen] there, and they see a chance to add a Senate seat. It’s allowed the Democrats to dream of a filibuster-proof Senate majority [sixty seats]. I don’t think they’ll get it, but they can hope.”
Allen dismisses the idea that he might have to overcome a certain level of voter fatigue by the time next fall rolls around. “Interest will grow as the race goes on,” he says. “That’s what always happens.”
He lays any blame for campaign overdosing on the presidential race. “We probably will know who the [presidential] nominees on both sides will be by February, or March at the latest” he says. “This will be the longest general election campaign in my lifetime for sure and maybe ever, and that will yield some voter fatigue . . . but the interest in this [Senate] race I’m absolutely certain is going to grow rather than diminish.”
Allen is obviously hoping for some coattail effect from the presidential race. “Running against Susan Collins in a presidential year is helpful to me for sure,” he says, “because the agenda of the Republican nominee will be so out of tune with what the majority of the people in Maine want. That contrast will be clear.” He notes that Al Gore carried Maine by five points in 2000, John Kerry by nine points in 2004. “The Democratic nominee is bound to do better than Kerry did,” Allen says.
“Clearly this is a horse race, a legitimate contest, only because of the national political climate in a presidential election year,” offers Brewer. “The Republicans really have their backs to the wall, particularly in the Senate. They have Iraq and Bush around their necks and a number of incumbents leaving.”
But Mainers have a long history of ignoring coattails. “Back in 1996, I think Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in Maine by twenty-one points,” Collins says, “and yet I won over a former two-term governor and two-term congressman, Joe Brennan, by five points, so that twenty-six point shift shows that people in Maine consider each race very carefully.”
The candidates show perhaps surprising agreement about what the major issues in the race will be — Iraq, health care, education, energy costs, and the environment are all mentioned. Allen tends to speak of the issues in national terms — the need for Congress to pass national energy and health-care policies, for example. Collins peppers her comments with Maine references — the impacts of energy costs on a displaced mill worker in Millinocket and rising health care expenses on a small business in Kittery.
This early in the race, it’s difficult to say how the war in Iraq will affect the outcome. Collins has worked hard in
recent months to distance herself from her past support for the war and the Bush administration, such as her vote in support of former Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez. She may well remember another respected Maine senator who lost her seat largely because of her support for an unpopular war — Margaret Chase Smith in 1972.
Allen uses every opportunity to link Collins to the Bush administration’s failures in everything from foreign policy to tax cuts. “Most people in Maine are living from paycheck to paycheck, having a much harder time paying for health care, education, heating oil, and fuel,” Allen says. “What the Republican Congress and Bush administration have done is accelerate those trends and make the problems of the middle class worse. [Collins] has supported that entire agenda. She supported the president’s policy in Iraq; she’s voted for all of the tax cuts for the richest people in the country and therefore contributed to the squeeze on middle-class families.”
It’s a connection Collins refuses to acknowledge. “People know me and know my record,” she says. “They know I take an independent approach to the issues. They know I support the president when I think he’s right, but that I haven’t hesitated to differ with him on important issues, whether it’s stem-cell research or environmental issues or the mission in Iraq. In addition, it will not be George Bush at the top of the ticket next year.”
“I really don’t see the race as particularly close,” observes Diamon. “Allen hasn’t gained any traction in the Second District, and if he does, he has some huge negatives that Collins can use against him, starting with his role in keeping the new Postal Service distribution center in the First District and out of Lewiston.”
Also, as Diamon and others have pointed out, Allen will have his work cut out just to shake his image as the quintessential Portland liberal among voters north of Augusta. In an interview, Allen plays down his Portland roots and emphasizes the time he spent at the family’s summer home, a farm in Sebago, his membership in the Small Woodlot Owners Association of Maine, and his love of the Can-Am Crown International Sled Dog races in Fort Kent.
Collins also points out that she has authored and seen signed into law a number of major bills in recent years, a claim Allen can’t make. “I think a fundamental issue in the race will be who has been more effective for the state and who can do more for Maine in the future,” she says. “There is a clear-cut difference between Tom’s record and mine . . . It’s very difficult to predict exactly what issues will come up over the next six years, so I think what Maine people do is look at [a candidate’s] effectiveness, judgment, and philosophy, whether they’re comfortable with the person.”
With the election still almost a year away, any prediction of its outcome is only educated guesswork, but Allen faces an uphill battle. “I frankly don’t think he’s going to win,” says Palmer. “Maine has a reputation for reelecting incumbents, and Maine voters have not defeated an incumbent U.S. senator since 1978. Mainers recognize that a small state like this needs senators with seniority.”
“The election is a year away, and a lot can change in a year,” Diamon points out. “A lot would have to change for Allen to win. Right now, I think Collins will win by a landslide in the Second District and take the First by a solid ten points.”
“If events in Iraq continue in the same vein, if George Bush continues to get lousy ratings, and if Allen can make the case that George Bush and Susan Collins are tied together, maybe he can turn things around,” Brewer offers. “But thus far he hasn’t run the world’s greatest campaign, and it’s still Susan Collins’ race to lose.”
That, of course, will be up to Mainers to decide. Whatever happens, they should expect one heck of a slugfest.
Comments may be edited for spelling. Profanity is discouraged. If you'd like your comment considered for inclusion in the magazine, please include your hometown and state.
Reader Comments: