I hate suspense. So I'm relieved there's no dreaming or discussion about a white Christmas this year. That's great not only for those who love winter sports (and don't mind shoveling), but for the Maine economy. Snowmobiling alone brings in an estimated $300 million a year. But the early snowfall almost certainly means there will be more snowmobile accidents this year.

There's a sad, but steady logic to snowmobile accident statistics. If there's so little snow you can see the ground, snowmobilers stay home, accidents decline and snowmobile-dependent businesses get frantic. If there's just enough snow to cover the trails, but not enough to cushion them, more snowmobilers venture out, but they're also more likely to hit barely covered rocks and stumps. If there's snow only in a few areas, traffic concentrates there and more snowmobiles in smaller areas means accidents are more likely. And if there's plenty of snow everywhere, snowmobilers can spread out, but sometimes they also speed up.

Still, the most basic rule is more snow, more snowmobilers, more accidents. In the winter of 2002-2003, when the Portland Seadogs' opening games were postponed - four times - because of April snow, a record 107,285 snowmobiles were registered and there were a record 16 fatalities. There also were 401 accidents, the second most on record. The record (428) was set in 2000-2001, when the snow came early and so did the accidents.

In the winter of 2005-2006, though, you could still see grass in Presque Isle in mid February. In Somerset County people actually tried to truck in enough snow to cover eight miles of trails. They were hoping to make a safe path to higher elevations of the ITS 89 (Interconnected Trail System), where snow was plentiful. But with 13,000 miles of snowmobile trails in Maine that was a desperate but limited solution.

So it's no coincidence there were just 75,235 sleds registered (lowest in a decade) and only 117 snowmobile accidents, the fewest in nearly 20 years. Sadly, there were still seven fatalities because fatalities follow rules of their own. The difference between a snowmobile accident and a fatal snowmobile accident often is simply the direction a person fell or a split-second decision that went tragically wrong.

You could see all those rules in play last year, despite the weird winter weather. On Jan. 6, 2007, it was 65 degrees in Portland and people actually reported their daffodils were popping out of the ground. That kind of weather definitely depresses snowmobile activity. But then we got buried in snow for Easter and Patriots Day.

Nevertheless, all but one of the year-end snowmobile statistics were very close to the 10-average. We've averaged seven fatalities a year for the past decade and there were six last year. Sled registrations have averaged 91,343 in the same period and last year there were 91,733. But you can tell the time people spent on the trails was shorter than usual, because the number of accidents was far below average, just 172, compared to the 10-year average of 295.

Of course, you could also argue that there is nothing average about any Maine winter and even less so lately.

But since snow conditions are pretty the same for everybody, what causes individual snowmobile accidents? The answer has been the same since the first sleds roared onto the first trails. Speed, alcohol, not paying attention, lack of skills and lack of common sense.

The early weeks of the season, when conditions are marginal and sledding skills rusty, can be among the most hazardous. It's also the time when novices venture out on the trails - some of them timid, but some quite the reverse.

So the annual safety message sent out by the Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife rarely changes. Here it is for 2007, but the advice would be just as timely any year.

" Ride Sober - A high percentage of snowmobile fatalities and injuries are the direct result of someone's irresponsible use of alcohol. Don't drink and ride. Don't let anyone else in your group drink and ride.

" Be Aware Of Conditions - Early season riding often means little snow or poor cover. Objects that are covered later in the season are now exposed or barely hidden. Ride accordingly.

" Stay off roads and on trails - Early in the season, it is tempting to ride on roadways. Don't do it. It is illegal and it puts both snowmobilers and automobile drivers in danger.

" Ride At A Reasonable Speed - Speed limits are determined by existing conditions. If you can't control your sled safely at the speed you are going, you are going too fast. You are not only threatening your safety, but the safety of others around you. Slow down.

" Use Hand Signals - The use of a simple set of hand signals on the trails keeps traffic orderly and predictable. These signals inform other sledders of your actions. Know them and use them.

" Ride Defensively - You can do everything right, but still encounter a rider who is doing everything wrong. By riding defensively, you will be prepared to respond and avoid a dangerous situation.

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