Some Clarity Around New Maine Political Poll
The poll first reported on last night by the Portland Press Herald, which shows Libby Mitchell at 20%, independent Eliot Cutler at 19% and Republican Paul LePage leading them both with 32%, is certainly a departure from previous surveys and must, at this point, be considered an outlier until more polling is done. (Both PPP and CI are back in the field next week.)
However, the poll certainly isn't "worthless," as Shawn Moody advisor Dennis Bailey referred to it in a tweet. According to Bailey, the Press Herald informed him that the poll measured registered voters rather than likely voters (which would be a strange practice this close to the election).
But according to CI, the poll did use a likely voter screen and in fact used the exact same methodology (albiet with a slightly larger sample size) as their Maine Poll tracking survey, which is commissioned by Maine Today Media and has measured the race three times so far this cycle.
This poll is different from the Maine Poll in that it's part of a long-running series of surveys conducted twice a year by CI. In it, they also asked a series of questions about the general opinions of the Maine electorate on a variety of issues (although they asked the election questions first).
Full results below: