The last Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll, released today, is the first to show Eliot Cutler with a larger percentage of the vote than Libby Mitchell, outside of the poll's margin of error.

In the poll of 400 likely voters, LePage leads with 37%, followed by Cutler with 31%, Mitchell with 22%, Moody with 3% and Kevin Scott with 1% of the vote. 7% are undecided. The poll has a 4.9% margin of error, 95 times out of 100.

Supporters of question one, on the building of a casino in Oxford County, had a small lead in the poll with 51% surveyed saying they would vote yes and 47% no, with 3% undecided.

According to the poll, voters in the first congressional district are slightly more disposed to support a casino than those in the second. Pan Atlantic also notes some differences in candidate preference by age. However, the numbers of respondents in each of these sub-groups are not large enough to make any real distinctions.

Read full poll memo here.

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